Ben Buchwalter


Polls! 2 days! Hullabaloo!
November 2, 2008, 7:50 pm
Filed under: 2008 Election | Tags: , ,

So when on Tuesday are we going to know? Lets start with the numbers.

According to Politico, there are 18 states, totaling 234 electoral votes that will definitely go for Obama or are leaning in his direction. There are 19 states totaling 150 electoral votes that will definitely go for McCain. That means that Obama only needs 36 extra electoral votes from the remaining 13 swing states to win the election. Those states are listed below with their electoral vote value. The ones in blue are slightly leaning Obama, those in red are leaning McCain.

Total electoral votes in swing states: 134

Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Colorado (9)
Pennsylvania (21)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
New Hampshire (4)

Mossouri (11)
Indiana (11)
Arizona (10)
North Dakota (3)

If you just look at the swing states in which Obama is ahead by at least five points according to the most recent poll in that state (NM, CO, PA, OH, NH), then Barack Obama would win with at least 293 electoral votes with 75 electoral votes in swing states still up for grabs. If Obama sweeps the swing states in which he is ahead, then he would win with 353 electoral votes. This is unlikely to happen because it actually does seem like the race is getting closer in states like Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada.

So when will we know who won? To get those 36 votes that Barack Obama needs to win, I think that his bare bones best chances are winning Pennsylvania (21) and Ohio (20) to put him over the top. Polls close in Ohio at 7:30 ET and in Pennsylvania at 8:00 ET. So I am going to go ahead and predict that we will know the winner by 9:30 Eastern Time on Tuesday night. Of course, that estimate is dependent on how close things actually are in those states, and when the major cities (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati) are counted.

Get excited.

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